Wellingborough,U.K.(23July2012)–ThebudgetavailabletoforItaly’sContoEnergiaVPVincentiveprogramcouldbecuttolessthanhalfoftheintendedamount,wipingoutanyFITbudgetfor2013andsignificantlyreducingtheoutlookforinstallationsinItalyoverthenextthreeyears,accordingtothelatestreportfromIMSResearch<http://www.pvmarketresearch.com>(recentlyacquiredbyIHSInc.(NYSE:IHS)).Theresearchfirm’slatestquarterlyPVDemandDatabase<http://www.pvmarketresearch.com/report/PV_Demand_Database_Quarterly_Q212>reportrevealsthatwhilstthenewfeed-intariff(FiT)schemecouldhavesupportedanadditional7.5gigawatts(GW)ofinstallationsoverthenexttwoyears,itisnowlikelythatitwillresultinjust3GWofadditionalinstallations,withtheFiTclosingasearlyas2013.

　　TheGestoredeiServiziEnergetici(GSE)announcedon12thJulythattheannualcostofPVincentiveshadreached€6billion,triggeringthe45daynoticeperiodfortheintroductionofthecountry’snewContoEnergiaVfeed-intariff(FiT)on27thAugust2012.Thenewschemewasintendedtobeaccompaniedbyanadditionalannualbudgetof€700mandisduetoendwhenthetotalannualcostreached€6.7billion.However,alargenumberofinstallationswerecompletedinthefirsthalfofthethisyearinordertobenefitfromthepreviousContoEnergia’sgenerousratesandthesearenotyetallincludedintheofficialGSEstatistics.Asaresult,thisofficialannualcostfigurehascontinuedtorisesincetheannouncementjustoveraweekagoandalreadyexceedsthe€6billionthresholdbynearly€100m.

　　“Basedonvarioussupplychainchecks,IMSResearchestimatesthataround3GWofinstallationswillhavebeencompletedbythetimeContoEnergiaVisintroducedinAugust,”commentedSamWilkinson,SeniorPVAnalystatIMSResearch.“CurrentlytheofficialGSEstatisticsshow1.8GWofinstallationsandacostof€6.1billion.Oncethesefigurescatchupwithreality,thiswilltaketheannualcostofincentivestoaround€6.4billion,andwillreducetheadditionalbudgetavailablefornewContoEnergiaVinstallationstojust€300m.”

　　Thereportrevealedthattheseverelyreducedbudgetavailabletothenewincentiveschemehasledtoasignificantlyreducedlong-termoutlookforItaly.ThelatestforecastreleasedbyIMSResearchpredictsthatinstallationsinItalywillnowdeclineforthesecondconsecutiveyearin2013andfalltolessthan3GWforthefirsttimeinsince2009.“WhilstItalyhasconsistentlybeenoneofthelargestmarketsintheworld,2013willseeitfalloutsidethetop-threemarketsforthefirsttimeinfiveyears,”addedWilkinson.

　　IMSResearchpredictsthathadthefull€700mofadditionalbudgetbeenavailabletoContoEnergiaVinstallations,Italycouldhavemaintaineditsleadingpositionintheglobalmarket,installingover7GWoverthenexttwoyears.“Unlessadditionalbudgetismadeavailableorfurtherchangesaremadetotheincentivescheme,itlookslikelythatItaly’sPVmarketwillneedtosurvivewithoutincentivesstartingfrom2013.ItalydoeshavefavorableconditionsforPVandsomeinstallationswillcontinuewithoutincentives,particularlyinthesouthofthecountry,butthiswillnotbeenoughtomaintainthemarketatitscurrentsizeforsomeyears,”concludedWilkinson.

　　Ends

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